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Which Ads Will Be the Winners on Sunday?

881313810Super Bowl LIII is straight ahead this Sunday and the game appears to be a toss-up. One can only hope it has the excitement of the Conference Championships. But each year the game is more than a game, it’s a viewing “event” where the ads are as important or more (to the advertisers) than the game itself.

Ads are often viewed in groups at parties and are scorned or celebrated, and the day after “ratings” for the ads can be brutal.

Each year my friends at MayoSeitz Media, a very talented group of media professionals reminds us of the key advertisers, costs, and some of the history of the event.

Below is their recent blog post about the forthcoming game from the MayoSeitz Media Monitor, titled the Super Bowl of Advertising. Good stuff.

The big game is now around the corner. Super Bowl LIII (53) will air on CBS (and stream on CBSsports.com) from the snazzy Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday Feb 3. Game time will be 6:30pm. Hopefully the game matches the intensity of the unbelievable overtime Conference championship games. So now the teams are set and this year’s game will feature AFC Champions New England Patriots (again) and the NFC Champions Los Angeles Rams. The expectation is for 110+MM US viewers and Millions more abroad. The US viewership will translate into roughly 55 Million homes or more than 70% of Homes Using TV. In addition to the markets of the conference championship teams, Boston and Los Angeles, virtually every local TV will be turned to the big game.

As always, there is a list of heavyweights that will use the highly rated Super Bowl as a platform for their brands. Leading the pack is Anheuser-Busch InBev that is making a mega buy with eight ads totaling five-and-a-half minutes. Brands advertised will include Budweiser, Bud Light, Michelob Ultra, Stella Artois and Bon & Viv SpikedSeltzer, a flavored malt beverage brand.

The going rate for an in-game :30 ad is $5.2Million.

Beyond Anheuser-Busch InBev, other advertisers aren’t too shabby either, as the list of in-game advertisers includes:

Audi

Avocados From Mexico

Colgate—Total

Devour (Kraft Heinz)

Hyundai

Kia

M&M’s (Mars)

Mercedes-Benz

PepsiCo—Pepsi, Doritos and Bubly

Persil ProClean (Henkel)

Pringles

Toyota

TurboTax (Intuit)

Turkish Airlines

WeatherTech

As we think about the game ahead, we are again reminded about the history of the Super Bowl, which began as the Championship game between what was then the traditional NFL and the start-up AFL. The first “Super Bowl” was played on January 15, 1967 featuring the NFL Champion Green Bay Packers against the AFL Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Historians will remind us that the two rival leagues had not even merged yet and would not do so until after the third Super Bowl. After a competitive first half, Green Bay, led by legendary Coach Vince Lombardi, easily won by a score of 35-10. Al Hirt was the halftime talent. He had no dancers, and his wardrobe did not malfunction.

The first “Super Bowl” really was not even “super”. It was merely called the AFL-NFL World Championship game and was played at a neutral site, the cavernous Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, the stadium where USC and the LA Rams now play (the Rams wish the Super Bowl was played at the Coliseum this year). The term “Super Bowl” was an off-handed comment made by Chiefs owner, Lamar Hunt based on his granddaughter’s love of the “super ball” toy. The Super Bowl name stuck and it took on the official name after the third game.

The first game was not a super event in other ways too. The game was not sold out, despite modest ticket prices ($12) and a local TV blackout. It must have been a good beach day in LA that day. The first game was broadcast on two networks, CBS, which carried the NFL games, and NBC, which carried the AFL games. CBS charged $85,000 for a 60-second commercial, and NBC charged $75,000. The game achieved a combined 41 household rating with 51 million viewers

This year’s advertisers will again be paying up to $5.2MM million for each 30 second commercial, roughly $175,000 per second, which is more than the cost of a full :60 on both CBS and NBC’s original broadcast.

The question is always: Is this worth it for the advertiser? The firm answer is: Maybe.

There are some mitigating factors when considering the value of an ad in the Super Bowl:

1. There is no comparable event to reach such a significant mass audience. In today’s fragmented media world, there is no single program capable of delivering the audience that the Super Bowl does. There are very few “water cooler” events on TV with a similar impact.

2. The Super Bowl is far more than a game that delivers a large audience. It is a happening. That carries with it a value far greater than mere exposure. What makes advertising in the Super Bowl more powerful today is that the commercials are usually part of an elaborate campaign that also includes social media.

The real “value” of Super Bowl advertising is not found solely in the mathematical CPM. There is no event where the ads are often as noteworthy as the game itself, where millions of Americans gather with friends and family to analyze the ads as they appear. To advertisers, this represents an enormous opportunity to introduce a new commercial, which is often part of a new mega-promotional campaign that extends beyond traditional advertising.

What this means is that if you are going to be a Super Bowl advertiser, then the spot needs to be great—not just good. Because there is nothing worse than spending $5+ Million and then being slammed on the Monday after for airing a weak commercial. In addition, your spot needs to be more than merely effective. To justify the hype, it needs to be a “mini-film” that others will want to view repeatedly. Therefore, talking babies, animals, big production, celebrity talent, etc. should be part of the plan.

However, if you hit creative pay dirt and create a spot that is a big as the Super Bowl itself, get mega social spin, and really want the bang of reaching the widest possible audience, then $5+ Million may be a price worth paying.

In any event, once again the game will be the biggest TV event of the year, and will hopefully be as exciting at the Conference Championship games.




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